Kenwood Racing Stable Notes for June 14, 2019
Final buy for final sale day, 2 great groups coming, plus another work
The final day of OBS was the strongest yet, we got the one horse we wanted the most and outbid on two others. Came up with another great filly, Hip #725, a Florida bred by Soldat who worked in a super fast 10.0 and galloped out (much like Hip #113) in a super fast 20.4. Of particular note here is the amazing female family she comes out of. Her incredible dam has 12 foals to race, and EVERY ONE is a winner, including a stakes winner and a Grade 1 stakes placed horse. Almost impossible to believe.
We’re going to package the two fillies, Hip #113 and Hip #725, into one group, and the colt, Hip #393 and funds for a claiming pool into a second group. Details to follow shortly!
See below for work update, nice new work for Seahawk Lisa.
Entry news:
- Federal Dominance makes his Kenwood debut Saturday in the 12th race.
We have updated possible entry info. for all your horses, as usual found here.
Horse Workout Notification
June 14, 2019
Seahawk Lisa (2-Year-Old Filly)
Your comments for this horse were: KRP Racehorse
Date: June 14, 2019
Track: LOS ALAMITOS
Distance: Four Furlongs
Time: 49:60 Handily
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 3/10
Kenwood Racing Stable Notes for June 13, 2019
Another nice OBS buy on Day Two...
The second day of OBS June was stronger than the first day, we got outbid on a couple but got one more of the ones we really wanted with Hip #393, just look at the photo of this super handsome colt, speaks for itself. Purchased from one of the best, most reputable consignors, Niall Brennan, for a value priced $23,000 after outbidding several people.
OBS June sale began with a bang for us on Wednesday with the purchase of a very impressive filly at a great price on day one. Hip #113, by Overanalyze (a promising young sire who just had his first grade 1 stakes winner on Belmont Day) - out of the stakes winning young Kitten’s Joy mare Bold Kitten was purchased for $40,000.
We have 4 horses on our list for Friday, the final sale day, with luck we’ll have one or two more and be able to offer two groups from OBS June. We have a lot of demand for these groups but unlike other syndicates who always have some marked-up product to sell on commission, we only buy what we are willing to invest our own money in, at a price we are willing to pay our own money for. Stay tuned for announcements on upcoming group offerings!
Thanks for your support!
Entry news:
- Federal Dominance training well at Monmouth Park and makes his Kenwood debut Saturday in the 12th race. Please let George know if you plan to attend and wish help with admissions-seating.
We have updated possible entry info. for all your horses, as usual found here.
Kenwood Racing Stable Notes for June 12, 2019
The OBS June sale begins with a bang for us with the purchase of a very impressive filly at a great price. Hip #113, by Overanalyze (a promising young sire who just had his first grade 1 stakes winner on Belmont Day) - out of the stakes winning young Kitten’s Joy mare Bold Kitten was purchased for $40,000. Besides the nice pedigree and the fact that she’s a really impressive physical individual, this purchase offers a great ‘teachable moment’ in how-when a fast workout time really matters. She worked in 10.1, one of the better works of the sale, but what made it so impressive was the gallop out time, 20.4 for 2 furlongs and 33.2 for 3 furlongs. Look at stakes races and you’ll see few horses run 3 furlongs anywhere near that fast.
The ‘teachable moment’ is that this is information few people at the sale have. All the sales company reports is the official 1/8 mile work time, 10.1. To know the gallop out times you need to employ a private clocker to sit on a bench for 4 days with a stop watch and accurately record gallop out times and makes notes on how they pull up. It costs a lot of money and takes a lot of work. We do it, many other professionals do also, but the majority of buyers don’t bother, most don’t even know it matters.
So think about 2 works at a sale, both listed as 10.1, a ‘fast’ time. One horse gallops out in 21.0 and 34.0, the other gallops out in 22.0 and 35.0. Which one worked better? NO guarantees, it’s one work, if you want a guarantee buy US government bonds, not racehorses! But which would you rather pay for at the sale, all things being equal?
This filly galloped out exceptionally fast, meaning AFTER the rider stood up on her at the end of her timed 1 furlong work, she kept going incredibly quickly on her own, a display of natural ability that’s exactly what you want in a racehorse. Again, no guarantees, maybe she can’t go 6 furlongs, maybe she gets hurt, or 100 other things, but it’s a very positive piece of the puzzle only a few people had. That’s exactly how people get bargains at sales.
This was a great sale for bargain hunters, sparsely attended, sales average down 12% from last year and RNA”s (not sold) up a stunning 60% (from 17.9% to 28.9%). From OBS website, "For the session, 187 horses grossed $6,119,500, compared with 179 selling for a total of $6,641,100 at last year’s first session. The average was $32,725 compared with $37,101 a year ago, while the median price was $20,000, up from $18,000 in 2018. The buyback percentage was 28.9%; it was 17.9.% last year."
We took advantage of the weak sale and our good research to buy a very nice horse at a very attractive price and if the trend holds we hope to add 2 or 3 more to our roster by the end of the sale Friday. Stay tuned for announcements on upcoming group offerings.
Entry news:
- Federal Dominance training well at Monmouth Park and makes his Kenwood debut Saturday in the 12th race. Please let George know if you plan to attend and wish help with admissions-seating.
Some nice works to report the last few days (all below).
- More Ice had a nice maintenance work as he points for a stake at Del Mar opening day, July 17th
- Starring John Wain a very nice maintenance work, will run in July at one of the Northern Ca. state fairs with Golden Gate off for the summer.
- Preacher had a terrific work today, being pointed for a nice spot at Los Alamitos end of June.
- Start A Fire training very well.
- Life On the Edge good out of her fast work, probably will debut next month.
We have updated possible entry info. for all your horses, as usual found here.
Horse Workout Notification
June 12, 2019
Preacher (2-Year-Old Colt)
Your comments for this horse were: KRP Racehorse
Date: June 12, 2019
Track: SANTA ANITA PARK
Distance: Four Furlongs
Time: 48:40 Handily
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 1/19
More Ice (3-Year-Old Colt)
Your comments for this horse were: KRP Racehorse
Date: June 12, 2019
Track: SANTA ANITA PARK
Distance: Four Furlongs
Time: 50:20 Handily
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt training
Rank: 7/12
Horse Workout Notification
June 11, 2019
Starring John Wain (3-Year-Old Colt)
Your comments for this horse were: Private purchase
Date: June 11, 2019
Track: GOLDEN GATE FIELDS
Distance: Four Furlongs
Time: 48:60 Handily
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: All Weather Track
Rank: 1/3
Kenwood Racing Stable Notes for June 10, 2019
Some exciting works to report the last few days (all below)
- Bullion had his final tune up work for his race on June 21st and couldn’t be doing any better, pointing for an allowance race, an ideal spot if it goes.
- Blue Eyed Beth also had an excellent tune up work, will be entered next week at Gulfstream
- Shake It Up Baby had a super work this morning, went easy without being asked and still posted the fastest work of the day.
- Federal Dominance training well at Monmouth and will be entered this week
- More Ice looking at stake at Del Mar opening day, July 17th
- Starring John Wain fine, will run in July at one of the Northern Ca. state fairs with Golden Gate off for the summer.
- Preacher being pointed for a nice spot at Los Alamitos end of June.
- Start A Fire will breeze down the lane 2 furlongs shortly. “He’s done everything right since coming here, fit in well. He’s ready to do something (work) now”, Kelly Breen.
- Life On the Edge good out of her fast work, probably will debut next month.
- Seahawk Lisa good out of her workout yesterday at Los Alamitos (below), there are races for her there end of June and early July, she should debut in one of them.
We have updated possible entry info. for all your horses, as usual found here.
Horse Workout Notification
June 10, 2019
Shake It Up Baby (2-Year-Old Colt)
Your comments for this horse were: KRP Racehorse, purchased OBS March 2019
Date: June 10, 2019
Track: MONMOUTH PARK
Distance: Four Furlongs
Time: 48:20 Breezing
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 1/43
Horse Workout Notification
June 10, 2019
Blue Eyed Beth (3-Year-Old Filly)
Your comments for this horse were: OBS June sale purchase
Date: June 10, 2019
Track: GULFSTREAM PARK
Distance: Four Furlongs
Time: 50:81 Breezing
Track Condition: Muddy
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 3/5
Horse Workout Notification
June 9, 2019
Bullion (3-Year-Old Colt)
Your comments for this horse were: OBS March with Hollendorfer
Date: June 9, 2019
Track: SANTA ANITA PARK
Distance: Five Furlongs
Time: 1.02:60 Handily
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt training
Rank: 3/7
Horse Workout Notification
June 8, 2019
Life On the Edge (2-Year-Old Filly)
Your comments for this horse were: KRP Racehorse, purchased OBS March 2019
Date: June 8, 2019
Track: MONMOUTH PARK
Distance: Four Furlongs
Time: 48:00 Breezing
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 5/66
Horse Workout Notification
June 7, 2019
Seahawk Lisa (2-Year-Old Filly)
Your comments for this horse were: KRP Racehorse
Date: June 7, 2019
Track: LOS ALAMITOS
Distance: Three Furlongs
Time: 36:80 Handily
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 3/7
Kenwood Racing Stable Notes for June 8, 2019
A thrilling Belmont Stakes, congratulations to Sir Winston, a homebred for longtime owner-breeder Tracy Farmer. What an incredible day of racing at Belmont Park with some amazing performances by some of the best horses in the world in no less than 8 grade 1 stakes!
Another big day lots of news; works, races, claims. Here’s a rundown on all your horses, expect limited emails next week while at the OBS June sale…
- At Gulfstream Park Vibrant Spirit returned from a winter layoff and ran a really courageous race. Sent to the lead early, the longest shot on the board ranged up and pressured her from the outside from the break, leaving her trapped on the rail battling head to head for most of the race. Despite that, she fought every step of the way, took the lead turning for home, and finally tired late to finish 5th. It was an excellent effort off a layoff and the race should set her up well for a summer campaign.
- At Monmouth ShimmyShimmy Shake made her Kenwood debut and was the disappointment of the day, finishing a dull 4th. In contrast with Vibrant Spirit above who was 5th but ran a courageous race with a rough trip, she had the dream setup, making an easy lead in a very slow time and coasting along in front only to come up totally empty when challenged on the far turn.
- In other news, our two year olds Giuliana Vee, Start A Fire, Shake It Up Baby and Life On the Edge all continue to train nicely at Monmouth Park as follows;
- Life On the Edge had another excellent work today (below). “She worked absolutely great”, Kelly Breen. She’s probably 30 days from her debut at the moment.
- Shake It Up Baby is expected to breeze Monday, also doing excellent. He had a little mucus when scoped so only galloped today.
- Start A Fire was going to have his first breeze today down the lane 2 furlongs but his workmate got hurt and Kelly is looking for another horse to train with him. “He’s done everything right since coming here, fit in well. He’s ready to do something (work) now”, Kelly Breen.
- Giuliana Vee had a little tenderness on her shin this morning (the majority of 2 year olds either get bucked shins or have tender shins at some point, it’s part of ‘growing pains’) so she’ll probably just gallop for a few days and work later on in the week.
- Annie’s Candy good out of his fast closing 3rd at Golden Gate Friday, beaten less than 2 lengths for the win and a long neck for 2nd. Well back early, he was flying at the finish and simply ran out of ground in a 5 furlong race too short for his closing kick. He’s a super nice, honest horse and should be a lot of fun for us this year now that we’ve got him spotted properly.
- Seahawk Lisa good out of her workout yesterday at Los Alamitos (below), there are races for her there end of June and early July, she should debut in one of them.
- Bullion couldn’t be doing any better, pointing for an allowance race June 21st at Santa Anita, ideal spot if it goes.
- Night of Idiots training well at Golden Gate, returned from the farm last week. Rapid Red should join her from the farm around July 1st.
- Federal Dominance training well at Monmouth and will be looking at his Kenwood debut possibly next week.
- Magic Musketier back and training well at Santa Anita after brief freshening, looking at a race in July at Del Mar for him
- More Ice looking at stake at Del Mar opening day, July 17th
- Starring John Wain fine, will run in July at one of the Northern Ca. state fairs with Golden Gate off for the summer.
- Preacher being pointed for a nice spot at Los Alamitos end of June.
- Blue Eyed Beth excellent, will be entered next week at Gulfstream
We have updated possible entry info. for all your horses, as usual found here.
Horse Workout Notification
June 8, 2019
Life On the Edge (2-Year-Old Filly)
Your comments for this horse were: KRP Racehorse, purchased OBS March 2019
Date: June 8, 2019
Track: MONMOUTH PARK
Distance: Four Furlongs
Time: 48:00 Breezing
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 5/66
Horse Workout Notification
June 7, 2019
Seahawk Lisa (2-Year-Old Filly)
Your comments for this horse were: KRP Racehorse
Date: June 7, 2019
Track: LOS ALAMITOS
Distance: Three Furlongs
Time: 36:80 Handily
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 3/7
Kenwood Racing Stable Notes for June 7, 2019
Excellent effort, work & entry news
- Annie’s Candy started off the 3 race weekend on a good note with a fast closing 3rd in race 7 on Friday at Golden Gate Field Golden Gate, beaten less than 2 lengths for the win and a long neck for 2nd. Well back early, he was flying at the finish and simply ran out of ground in a 5 furlong race too short for his closing kick. He’s a super nice, honest horse and should be a lot of fun for us this year now that we’ve got him spotted properly.
- Seahawk Lisa had a nice workout today at Los Alamitos (below), there are races for her there end of June and early July, she should debut in one of them.
We have updated possible entry info. for all your horses, as usual found here.
- At Gulfstream Park in race 2 on Saturday, Vibrant Spirit returns from a winter layoff in a nice spot tomorrow, she’s been training very sharply, Ron Spatz says he hopes she’s not too fresh first time out; if she can harness her speed and not get into a prolonged battle with the horse next to her, she has a real shot here. The #1 post will help if she breaks well, win or lose the race should set her up well for a summer campaign.
- A nice entry at Monmouth Park in race 12 on Saturday for ShimmyShimmy Shake, there was an opportunity to run in a short field and we took it, she’s been training well and it’s the right spot.
- Giuliana Vee, Start A Fire, Shake It Up Baby and Life On the Edge all continue to train nicely at Monmouth Park. Start A Fire has adjusted to life on the track quickly and easily and is doing really well, as are all the other three two year olds. It’s still early, but IF there are no major delays (the stats say there will be with one or two!) Start A Fire could be running before Labor Day and the other three sometime in July-Aug.
- Another super-fast, super-sound, super-good work for Bullion at Santa Anita. Couldn’t be doing any better, pointing for an allowance race June 21st at Santa Anita, ideal spot if it goes.
- Night of Idiots training well at Golden Gate Fields, returned from the farm last week. Rapid Red should join her from the farm around July 1st.
- Federal Dominance training well at Monmouth Park and will be looking at his Kenwood debut this month.
- Magic Musketier back and training well at Santa Anita after brief freshening, looking at a race in July at Del Mar for him
- More Ice looking at stake at Del Mar opening day, July 17th
- Starring John Wain fine, will run in July at one of the Northern Ca. state fairs with Golden Gate off for the summer.
- Preacher being pointed for a nice spot at Los Alamitos end of June.
- Blue Eyed Beth excellent, will be entered next week at Gulfstream
Finally, we head to the OBS June sale in Ocala now, the final two year old sale of 2019. Last year at this sale we found Blue Eyed Beth for a bargain $16,000 and ended up with one of our most affordable and successful groups, hoping history will repeat itself! Details to follow from the sale, stay tuned.
Horse Workout Notification
June 7, 2019
Seahawk Lisa (2-Year-Old Filly)
Your comments for this horse were: KRP Racehorse
Date: June 7, 2019
Track: LOS ALAMITOS
Distance: Three Furlongs
Time: 36:80 Handily
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 3/7
Kenwood Racing Stable Notes for June 5, 2019
2 big Saturday entries...
Two big entries for Saturday on the east coast to add to Annie’s Candy on the west coast in race 7 on Friday at Golden Gate Fields.
- At Gulfstream Park in race 2 on Saturday, Vibrant Spirit returns from a winter layoff in a nice spot, she’s been training very sharply, Ron Spatz says he hopes she’s not too fresh first time out; if she can harness her speed and not get into a prolonged battle with the horse next to her, she has a real shot here. The #1 post will help if she breaks well, win or lose the race should set her up well for a summer campaign.
- A nice entry at Monmouth Park in race 12 on Saturday for ShimmyShimmy Shake. There was an opportunity to run in a short field and we took it, she’s been training well and it’s the right spot.
Start A Fire is making very rapid progress with no hiccups at all. So far, we are very pleased See video below, he’s already going in the gate and galloping easily and nicely.
Kenwood Racing Stable Notes for June 4, 2019
Lots of training news, update on your horses
Good afternoon, a lot of work – training news to report as a new month begins but briefly first off, we head to the OBS June sale in Ocala next week, the final two year old sale of the year, looking to purchase a couple of nice, late developing two year olds. Last year at this sale, we found Blue Eyed Beth for a bargain $16,000 and ended up with one of our most affordable and successful groups, hoping history will repeat itself! Details to follow from the sale, stay tuned.
- Take a look at these videos from Kelly Breen of Giuliana Vee training from the gate and Start A Fire joining fellow two year olds Shake It Up Baby and Life On the Edge galloping nicely at Monmouth Park. Start A Fire has adjusted to life on the track quickly and easily and is doing really well, as are all the other three two year olds. It’s still early, but IF there are no major delays (the stats say there will be with one or two!) Start A Fire could be running before Labor Day and the other three sometime in July-Aug.
- Vibrant Spirit had a nice little final tune up work yesterday (below) and will be entered tomorrow for Saturday at Gulfstream Park, Ron Spatz continues to be really pleased with her.
- Another super-fast, super-sound, super-good work for Bullion at Santa Anita (below). Couldn’t be doing any better, just looking for a race for him.
- Annie’s Candy runs Friday at Golden Gate Fields, doing excellent.
- Night of Idiots has returned to training at Golden Gate Fields from the farm, Rapid Red will follow her shortly.
- ShimmyShimmy Shake and Federal Dominance training well at Monmouth Park and will be looking at their Kenwood debuts shortly.
- Magic Musketier in training again at Santa Anita after a brief freshening.
- More Ice, Starring John Wain and Preacher all well after their races last weekend.
- Seahawk Lisa training well in Ca. probably July for her debut
- Blue Eyed Beth excellent, will be entered next week at Gulfstream Park
Horse Workout Notification
June 3, 2019
Vibrant Spirit (4-Year-Old Filly)
Your comments for this horse were: OBS MArch sale purchase
Date: June 3, 2019
Track: GULFSTREAM PARK
Distance: Four Furlongs
Time: 49:97 Breezing
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 4/6
Horse Workout Notification
June 3, 2019
Bullion (3-Year-Old Colt)
Your comments for this horse were: OBS March with Hollendorfer
Date: June 3, 2019
Track: SANTA ANITA PARK
Distance: Five Furlongs
Time: 1.01:40 Handily
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt training
Rank: 1/15
Kenwood Racing Stable Notes for June 2, 2019
Not the day we were hoping for as none of the three runners hit the board, although Preacher did show a ton of talent in his debut and Starring John Wain put in his usual good effort.
- Preacher was the first up and simply lost all chance when his head was turned at the start and he came out sideways at the break, at least 10 lengths behind the field. The positive was that once he recovered he made an absolutely spectacular move from dead last all the way up to 2nd, gobbling up ground in a few strides. He tired from the effort to finish 5th but clearly demonstrated speed and ability. This kind of thing is normal for first time starters, in fact the winner here had a similar bad break in his debut; broke well today in his second start and won impressively. Preacher only had 1 four furlong work coming into this, Jerry felt he would get more out of a race than another work and with this one under his belt he should be very tough to beat next time with a better start given the level of ability he showed.
- Next up was the real disappointment of the day as More Ice simply failed to fire, finishing a dull 5th. He had trained exceptionally well into this and was perhaps a bit fresh, tugging hard in the early going while being rated on a super slow early pace, but when the real running began he backed up in the stretch. After the race he galloped out very strongly and came back on his toes, so perhaps he just didn’t respond well to rating. It’s a shame as we had high hopes for this race but he’s a very consistent runner and will get other opportunities now at Del Mar, where he has won two times impressively already.
- Finally, Starring John Wain was the victim of an absolutely horrible trip as he got caught between a bunch of horses in the 11 horse field with absolutely nowhere to go while trying repeatedly to make moves from the far turn all the way through the stretch, finally getting free in the final strides finish a closing 4th. It was a brave effort, more than good enough to win with a favorable trip. That’s the problem with huge fields, the trip becomes everything and the best horse frequently doesn’t win. He’s as honest as they come, runs short and long, turf and dirt, and will be right there again next time.
- In other news, Giuliana Vee had an exceptionally good work today at Monmouth. Came out of the gate with two other horses, was on the unfavorable inside and came out a half step slower, yet charged ahead of them and ended up with a very fast work time (see video and work info below). This filly has worked fast and well from day one and it’s undoubtedly a good sign. The program, particularly with many new owners in the group, this that we tread a fine line between reporting obviously good news and giving people unrealistic expectations. There is a HUGE difference between working fast at 3 furlongs with two horses and running fast at 5,6,7,8 furlongs in an actual race. There are many horses who work as well as she has so far who end up being modest claiming horses, probably a majority. Statistically about 2% of all horses win stakes, about 12% win allowance races in their careers. A horse who works like she has so far might have 2 or three times the shot to be at that level, so maybe a 5% chance of being a stake horse and a 25% chance of being an allowance horse. In other words, she’s on a very positive path but it a few good works doth not a star make! That said, her owners have legit. reason for some excitement at this early juncture.
- Finally, a very nice work today at Golden Gate for Annie’s Candy (below), his final tune-up for his race Friday as he looks for his 2nd win in a row for us.
- Others good out of recent works, Magic Musketier back at Santa Anita and training nicely, Blue Eyed Beth and Vibrant Spirit both ready for their races shortly in Fla. All others well.
Horse Workout Notification
June 2, 2019
Giuliana Vee (2-Year-Old Filly)
Your comments for this horse were: KRP Racehorse, purchased OBS March 2019
Date: June 2, 2019
Track: MONMOUTH PARK
Distance: Three Furlongs
Time: 35:80 Breezing
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 2/47
Horse Workout Notification
June 2, 2019
Annie's Candy (6-Year-Old Gelding)
Your comments for this horse were: KRP Racehorse, claimed 10-28-18 at GGF
Date: June 2, 2019
Track: GOLDEN GATE FIELDS
Distance: Four Furlongs
Time: 49:00 Handily
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: All Weather Track
Rank: 11/89
Kenwood Racing Stable Notes for June 1, 2019
Works, videos, photos....
- A good morning of training with works at Monmouth for Life On the Edge and Shake It Up Baby, who worked in company out of the gate this morning. As you can see on the link below and as Kelly Breen explained, they got more company than expected as two older horses were working as they came out of the gate and gave them some unexpected schooling (“It wasn’t what we had planned but it was a good education for them, turned out well”, Kelly).
- Adam Parker sent us one final photo of Start A Fire the day before he shipped out to Monmouth, it’s attached here, enjoy!

Photo courtesy of Adam Parker, T-Square Stud
- Annie’s Candy runs Friday at Golden Gate Fields. It’s a 5 furlong turf race. It’s the right level, and he has run 2nd in a stake in a very fast time on this turf course at the same distance, so not at all out of the question he runs well here. Race flow seems to suit him too, a lot of speed in the race to set up his late run.
Tomorrow is a very big day of racing for our California division, we get a number of requests for handicapping info. – suggestions when one of our horses hits the entries, i.e. “is our horse live, is it worth a bet” etc. Usually we don’t offer much in the way of wagering advice because we see our goal as winning races with your horses, not in cashing tickets (fun as that certainly is) and prefer to leave the handicapping to you. But now and then a little commentary in terms of betting doesn’t hurt and with three very ‘live’ horses running on one day in three very interesting races, this is a good time for a little handicapping…
As an overview begin by noting that for any serious handicapper, it’s all about ‘value’. Frequently you are wagering not on the horse with the best chance to hit the winner’s circle but rather on a horse with less of a shot that offers better odds. For example, if you have an obvious favorite in a race that has a 50% chance of winning but goes off at 3 to 5, in the long run you’ll win half your bets with these and go broke. On the other hand, the second if the second favorite has a 25% chance of winning but is going off at 4 to 1, you’ll only win a quarter of those bets but make a lot of money over time. Keeping that essential rule firmly in mind, here’s how I see our three runners for Sunday (in order of appearance).
- First up we have the career debut of Preacher in the 2nd race at Santa Anita, our first two year old of 2019 to reach the entry box. He’s been training very forwardly for his debut and is listed as the somewhat surprising 2nd choice at 3 to 1 morning line despite a super-tough spot (a maiden special weight with a huge $65,000 purse attracts premier young horses who cost many times his modest $40,000 purchase price). It’s a tribute to how well he’s been working, plus a top rider in Draden Van Dyke and a top trainer in Jerry Hollendorfer. He gets the far outside post in a 7 horse field, much better than drawing the rail but a bit problematic at 4&1/2 furlongs with a quick run to the first turn. A couple of horses have a start under their belts, a huge advantage for them as most of the time career debuts learning experiences. Could he win? Absolutely. He’s training too well not to have a shot, but most likely he ends up 2nd or 3rd or 4th, shows some ability and moves forward from this race. As an example More Ice was a distant but closing 3rd of five horses in his career debut about this time last year and went on to bigger and better things. This horse looks like more of a precocious speed type but that said, I’d personally want at least 4 to 1, maybe a bit higher, to seriously bet on him. Probably a decent across the board wager if odds aren’t too low.
- Next we have More Ice in the $150,000 Cinema Stakes on the turf at Santa Anita. He’s been pointing for this race and comes into it training absolutely super since his close 3rd in the California Derby in April (which was his 3rd career stakes placing). The right surface, the right distance and while we rarely talk much about jockeys, he’ll be ridden by one of the great ‘money riders’ in history in hall of fame jockey Mike Smith. He’s listed at 9 to 2 odds, somewhat surprising as especially with Mike Smith aboard I’d have expected a morning line closer to 3 to 1 or 7 to 2. That’s due to the quality of the competition he faces; all stakes are super tough and this is certainly no exception. That said, IF he fires his best shot AND gets a good trip he should be in the money again and has a legitimate chance to collect his first career stakes win. I’d gladly bet on him at the morning line of 9 to 2, even a bit lower, probably win and place or in exotics with a couple of the other top prospects.
- Finally we have Starring John Wain running Sunday at Golden Gate Fields. He’s coming back a bit quick off his last race but we’ve been running against open company looking for a Ca. bred race and this looks like a decent spot for him if he can handle the quick turnaround and an overflow 11 horse field to boot. He’s been in the money in all of his last 8 starts and should be right there again. He’s listed as the 7 to 2 second choice on the morning line. Personally, in an 11 horse field with a horse coming back a bit quick who’s always close but has yet to win, I’d want 5 to 1 or better to make a win bet on him. An across the board bet makes sense at decent odds giving the fact he’s been in the money 8 straight times, while anything can happen you’d have to like his chances of hitting the board again here with any kind of a decent trip.
Now to some other horse news briefly….
- Start A Fire setting in nicely at Monmouth Park as he begins his training. Giuliana Vee will work tomorrow (Sunday).
- ShimmyShimmy Shake and Federal Dominance both training very well with no issues since claiming them, Kelly is happy with both horses.
- Nice work today for Seahawk Lisa at Los Alamitos in Ca. as she approaches her debut (below)
- Blue Eyed Beth good out of her recent work (below), as is Vibrant Spirit.
- Bullion is ready to run too, looking at a race June 21st for him unless something comes up sooner.
- Night of Idiots has returned to training at Golden Gate Fields from the farm, Rapid Red will follow her shortly.
- Magic Musketier in training again at Santa Anita after a brief freshening.
Horse Workout Notification
June 1, 2019
Life On the Edge (2-Year-Old Filly)
Your comments for this horse were: KRP Racehorse, purchased OBS March 2019
Date: June 1, 2019
Track: MONMOUTH PARK
Distance: Three Furlongs
Time: 37:20 Breezing
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 25/33
Shake It Up Baby (2-Year-Old Colt)
Your comments for this horse were: KRP Racehorse, purchased OBS March 2019
Date: June 1, 2019
Track: MONMOUTH PARK
Distance: Three Furlongs
Time: 37:20 Breezing
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 25/33
Horse Workout Notification
May 31, 2019
Seahawk Lisa (2-Year-Old Filly)
Your comments for this horse were: KRP Racehorse
Date: May 31, 2019
Track: LOS ALAMITOS
Distance: Three Furlongs
Time: 38:20 Handily
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 3/4
Horse Workout Notification
May 30, 2019
Blue Eyed Beth (3-Year-Old Filly)
Your comments for this horse were: OBS June sale purchase
Date: May 30, 2019
Track: GULFSTREAM PARK
Distance: Four Furlongs
Time: 49:80 Breezing
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 18/24
