Thursday, May 25, 2017 By Robb Levinsky

Whenever a well-bred promising young horse someone paid good money for under-performs, people naturally wonder “what went wrong and how can we fix it”? The problem is, neither pedigree, fast work times at a sale, or paying top dollar for a good-looking prospect offers any guarantees. Here’s the bottom line folks; a lot of the time the horse simply has no talent. Many readers are undoubtedly thinking “how can that be? We paid $50,000, $200,000, $500,000 (or more!) for this horse, she’s by a top sire, she looked good at the sale. There has to be something wrong here, something we can do to make her run”. I get it, believe me; as an owner for 35+ years, I know just how frustrating it is when a horse just plain doesn’t run. Here’s the facts. Every year, there’s a crop of about 22,000 racehorses. About 8,000 never win a race, another 10,000 are cheap claiming horses who scratch out a win or two and are worth little or nothing. About 3,000 are solid upper level claiming or allowance horses that can earn decent money and have value. The remaining 1,000 are really good horses, able to compete in stakes. Of those, less than 100 are true grade 1 & 2 stakes horses, the kind you see running in the big races on television. Here’s a Blog we recently wrote, with some of those stats from The Blood-Horse magazine, "The hard numbers with two year olds - Part II".

Even the most expert people, doing extensive research, end up with a majority of horses that fall into the first two categories above (never win or are cheap claiming horses). It’s not a matter of paying more money for a “better horse” either. Open the form at Saratoga, Gulfstream and Keeneland each year and you’ll see literally hundreds of horses the top owners in the game with access to the best advice and unlimited resources shelled out $500,000 – $5,000,000+ for (literally!) running in maiden races at age 4 & 5, unable to win. Here’s a great Blog on that by one of our co-owners, Bob Kasinow, "Sample economics at the high end".

Just consider, for a moment, the example of Zenyatta. One of the greatest horses in modern history. Horse of the Year, champion older mare three times, won 19 of 20 lifetime starts, the only female ever to win the Breeder’s Cup Classic. She has been bred to the very best sires money can buy; Tapit, Bernardini, and War Front (twice). The Tapit colt, named Ziconic, is now a four year old maiden, winless in six lifetime starts with earnings of $35,200 to date. The Bernardini colt, named Cozmic One is a three year old maiden, unplaced in two lifetime starts. Both the War Front foals died as babies. If the greatest mare in decades, bred to the very best sires money can buy, gets you two maidens and two dead foals, you know paying top dollar for pedigree offers no guarantees.

Last year, Kenwood Racing bought a two year old filly by Kitten’s Joy at the OBS April sale. She’s good-looking, trains well, is well-bred and sound. The only problem is, she’s still a maiden after 7 lifetime starts. We tried her at Gulfstream Park and Monmouth Park and she’s heading to Penn National now. She might be able to win a race or two there, but at best, we’re going to get a couple of winner’s circle photos in cheap races and then she’ll retire to a safe home and be a nice riding horse for someone because she simply lacks the talent to be a successful racehorse. Kenwood’s stats are among the best in the entire industry, (Read our blog, "Who is most successful buying two year olds at auction?"). 100% of the 2 year olds we’ve purchased to date have run and nearly 80% have won, but that doesn’t mean you aren’t going to have a lot more cheap horses than good ones with us (or anyone).

Having a horse you were really high on, fail to win a maiden claiming race is much like when your son or daughter isn’t accepted into an Ivy League School, or wants to be a professional dancer or actor or athlete and doesn’t make it “My kid is above average, it’s not fair, there’s something wrong”, but 99.9% just aren’t good enough to go to Harvard or play in the NBA.

Most syndicates and sales companies don’t tell you this stuff, the game runs on dreams, and it’s deflating to read these kind of statistics. The truth is, you CAN be successful and get a really good horse, but it’s a numbers game. You need to be willing and able to invest in 20 to come up with a few who can run and hopefully, one really good one. If you buy just one or a few horses most likely you’ll get a cheap claiming horse. 

Formula One (Hip 591, a colt by Smart Strike), the 2016 OBS March sales topper, sold for $1,700,000. So far, he has had two career starts, earning $712.00.

 

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