Last year, we published a blog analyzing the results shown in a Blood-Horse study (March 19, 2016, pg. 45) titled "2015 Performance & Earning Metrics, Sires of 2-Year-Olds". The Blood-Horse just updated those numbers for 2016 (March 18, 2017, pg. 59) and we thought it was worth seeing whether or not the numbers had changed significantly. Take a look:

As you can see, the results changed very little from 2015 to 2016. These metrics have remained quite consistent over the past decade, in fact. Just under 40% of all two year olds make it to the starting gate for at least one race, a little under 12% make it to the winner’s circle at least once, and just over 1% win a stake race. In other words, if you bought 100 two year olds randomly, you should expect to have 38 start, 11 win, 1 win a stake, and 62 not even make it to the races. A stable with a highly skilled team at the sale, coupled with capable trainers at the racetrack, should be able to significantly improve on those numbers. Nobody knows which unraced two year old will be tomorrow's star, but it's pretty clear when carefully analyzing physical conformation, movement on the track, and, to a lesser extent, pedigree and other factors which horses are highly unlikely to stand up to the rigors of training and make it to the starting gate. In other words, while you can’t predict which horse is going to be a really good horse, you can (with a lot of time and work) weed out most of the really bad ones. Another Blood-Horse study (February 18, 2017, pg. 48), which looked at the top 100 buyers of two year olds at public auction showed that Kenwood Racing has far exceeded the averages in all the above categories, so we’ve managed to do exactly that. We recently posted a Blog analyzing the results of that study too, "Who is most successful buying two year olds at auction?" Without a doubt there are other capable people who are able to far exceed the overall averages on a regular basis, but looking at the above Blood-Horse statistics makes clear just how few two year olds actually make it on the racetrack in their two year old season. Some horses are naturally precocious and come out running early, but few of those end up to be the stars of tomorrow. Many of the better horses are late developers who given time and patience will go on to be stars as they mature. With most two year olds it's a waiting game. If you can get them safely to the starting gate, get a race or two into them and have them mentally and physically sound going into their three year old season, you are doing your job.

This game requires a lot of patience and it’s important to keep in mind just how few horses win the black-type races we all dream of. Of course, one really good horse can pay for a lot of less successful ones, but coming up with the proverbial “big horse” is a process, and more likely than not, you won’t see the ultimate result until the horse is three or four (or older). A two year old racehorse is like a 15 year old human athlete. You can observe a lot of potential, but the big earning years (if they come at all) usually lie ahead. 

That's History (outside) and Lead Investor (rail) breezing at Monmouth Park on May 7th. Photo courtesy of Jack Czajkowski.