The Thoroughbred Daily News (TDN) had a really interesting article on the great race mare Zenyatta on November 16th, (see the exerpts just below) which offers a great ‘teachable moment’ on the relative importance of pedigrees-breeding. Link to the full article, Shirreffs High on Zenyatta’s Daughter Zellda

Most people know Zenyatta was one of the greatest horses ever, and naturally when she retired she was bred to the top sires in the world. Thus far, she’s produced four foals; only two even made it to the races and they haven’t won a single race between them. Her fifth foal named Zellda is currently in training and appears to have some promise, as the article below explains. The lesson here is that Bloodlines-pedigree mean a LOT less than people think. This is true with humans also, how many star athletes do you know in Tom Brady’s or LeBron James’s families? People spend a lot of money for a “black type” catalog page but it’s a living, breathing animal that comes out of the starting gate.

Even when there’s a star sibling, there are usually many others who are total duds. If Zenyatta’s daughter Zellda turns out to be a top runner after the aforementioned two unraced foals and two that couldn’t run a lick, that would be pretty normal for a broodmare. Serena and Venus Williams are both world-class tennis pros, there are 10 other siblings in the family who you’ve never heard of.

Kenwood has a really lovely yearling out of our great, multiple stakes winning mare Exchanging Fire. His full brother named Start A Fire was beautiful, sound, and plain slow when the time came to try him on the track. As the trainer says below about Zellda “As always, it comes down to speed and we won't really know that until she breezes”.

People sell horses by at least mis-leading if not outright lying about the facts. Attend any sale and you’ll hear a lot more talk about a two-year old’s “stakes winning half-brother” than what the horse looks like as a physical individual and how it walks and moves on the track. To be fair, that’s the fault of uneducated buyers, who value pedigree more than other, much more important factors. Bluntly, if Start A Fire had been a successful runner, everyone in that group would probably have paid any price they could afford to buy a share in his brother next year. Because he wasn’t, many of the same people won’t want a share in his brother at any price. Yet they are two entirely separate individuals, mentally and physically and likely in terms of speed and talent.

Yes of course pedigree means something; impossible to exactly quantify but good studies estimate it’s perhaps 15-20% of the total equation. The problem is, people pay 100% to 1000%+ more for the same exact unraced horse because it has a half-brother or sister who won a stake. As long as buyers keep doing that sellers will keep over hyping pedigree, because that’s how you get uneducated people to part with their money.

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