The humbling results at Gulfstream Park on January 30^th for Ernie Semersky, principal owner of Conquest Stables, offers an instructive example of just how tough this game can be, no matter how much money you bring to the party. According to an article in the Daily Racing Form from October 3, 2014, Conquest paid over 13 million dollars for horses in 2013-2014 (and a lot more since). Quoting from the article (you can read the entire article here.) Semersky "owns several residences, has a private plane, and is into art collecting". His longest-running business is in high-end car dealerships – Porsches and Audis… when attending the races, he often dresses ostentatiously. Last year at Woodbine, he wore two-toned sunglasses matching Conquest’s orange and blue silks. Semersky said that until six years ago, he also was a financial trader. He has made a lot of money and spent a lot of money. There’s a September 1989 Chicago Tribune article about his $700,000 purchase of a Porsche 959, described as the fastest street car in the world at the time”.

On January 30^th at Gulfstream Park, Conquest had runners in a total of seven races, including the grade III Sweetest Chant Stakes for three year old fillies, and the $350,000 grade II Holy Bull Stakes, a major early prep for Triple Crown contenders. When the dust had cleared from 1^st, 5^th, 6^th,7^th, 8^th, 10^th, and 11th races, Conquest had a good 2^nd place finish with the even money favorite, Conquest Typhoon, in the 8^th race, an allowance event with a $46,000 purse, and six off the board finishes with Conquest Artura (9^th in the first race), Conquest Daddyo (6^th and last in the 5^th race), Conquest Misbehave (7^th in the 6^th race ), Conquest Sandman (11^th in the 7^th race) Conquest Behop (7th in the 10^th race, the Sweetest Chant stakes) and Conquest Big E (a dull 4^th of 6 six horses in the 11^th race, the Holy Bull Stakes).  

In the DRF article, Semersky says “I want people when they come up against a Conquest horse – I don’t want them to think, ‘Can I win?’” Semersky said. “I want them to wonder, ‘Am I going to lose by 20 lengths?’”.  As Semersky learned at Gulfstream last week, this game is humbling. With the leading stables winning 20-25% and finishing in-the-money about 50-55% of the time, even the people at the top of the business spend a lot more time watching their horses run up the track than walking to the winner’s circle.

Take out the 10% trainer and jockey’s share of the purses and it’s unlikely the owner’s share of the purse earnings have fully covered these horse’s training costs, let alone paying back any of the nearly $2,000,000 he spent to purchase them. 

Semersky is hardly the only owner to enter the game with big expectations and a bigger ego and find out just how competitive and unpredictable horse racing can be. Just as in human athletics, where only a tiny number of players can perform at a professional level, only about 3% of all horses ever win a stake race of any kind, and less than 1% end up to be grade I stakes winners. 40% of all thoroughbreds born each year never win a single race and over 80% of those who do win, end up as claiming horses. Spending the most money does not assure you of coming up with the best horses. Many a billionaire has spent tens of millions of dollars seeking a triple crown or breeder’s cup horse and had little to show for it, except a sea of red ink. In fact, decades of statistics show that more champions are sold for $20,000 - $150,000 than for $1,000,000++ each year, but that doesn’t stop people with huge egos and bank accounts to match from overpaying for well-bred prospects at public auction. Twenty-four of Conquest’s 2014 sales buys cost six figures, and most were $250,000 or more. “If we find something we want, it’s going to be hard to outbid us,” Semersky said in the DRF article. 

A few very savvy, business-minded owners do make money in the thoroughbred business, by going to the sales with a strict budget, hiring skilled, hands-on people to manage their horses, and running them in the races where they belong, not where their egos would like them to be able to compete. Paying $1,000,000 for a beautifully bred yearling, in most cases, buys you a beautifully bred claiming horse. Suffice it to say, it’s not a game for little boys (or girls) in short pants. The lesson here is that you are far better off getting into this wonderful, but difficult and challenging business, with a good long-term plan, a large dose of patience and humility, and avoid idle boasting and arrogance. This game has a way of bringing everyone down to earth.