2019 Kentucky Derby day selections and analysis

As usual, this year’s Derby promises to be a fascinating handicapping exercise. While it’s the best known race in the country if not the world, it’s by no means the race with the best horses. It’s a race for young horses just developing, where the pace and trip in a huge field mean more in many cases than who has the most talent (a couple years ago Always Dreaming, a vastly inferior horse who never won a single race since, got a dream drip and won, the perfect example of that). This year’s edition is one of the most wide open betting races in recent memory, with many logical contenders.

First, some selections for a few other key races from Churchill Downs on Derby day, and for opening day at Monmouth Park

Opening day at Monmouth Park;

1^st race of the meet – race #1

Don’t really like anything here but since it’s the first race of the meet I’ll go ahead and select Known But To God and Tolaga Bay (who may be a price).

4^th race; Top selection Rol Again Question, Tampa horses run really well at Monmouth and he’s won his only start here.  

5^th race; Ellyb  has the class, is fresh, also comes from Tampa. The horse to beat, maybe at a short price

7^th race; The Cliff Hanger Stakes; Hawkish will be the deserving favorite and tough to beat but will try to upset him with Chad Brown trained class horse Projected.

Saturday May 4^th – Kentucky Derby Day

Pre-Derby races;

6^th – Grade I Distaff

Spiced Perfection is razor sharp and super consistent. If you get near her morning line 7 to 2 odds worth a wager. Marley’s Freedom is the obvious favorite and the horse to beat, but will be a very short price. too.

7^th – Grade II Distaff Turf Mile – Grade II

Hard to go past import Precieuse for Chad Brown off her last at Gulfstream Park, even with some gaps in her form. A big shout out to Kelly Breen trained Valedictorian. Kelly has done a fantastic job with her and not at all impossible she wires the field at a price. The ‘other’ Chad Brown trained horse, Environs, is a sleeper at a price and worth a wager .

8^th – Churchill Downs Stakes – Grade II

Promises Fulfilled is the class of the field, but vulnerable returning on 1 month rest from Dubai. Mitole is in too good form to ignore, the horse to beat if he handles the new surface.  

9^th – American Turf Grade II

Wide open race so I’ll go with three horses at high morning line odds, looking for an upset at a square price; Digital Age, War Film, and Henley’s Joy.  

10^th Pat Day Mile Grede III

In a race named for a much over-rated rider, I’ll pick against obvious favorite and class horse Instagrand. Jerry Hollendoffer (who trains for Kenwood) has done a fine job with this horse and he’s a deserving favorite, but at odds on, will look for value here. Many options to consider, maybe Durkin’s Call, Captain Von Trapp or Global Campaign if he draws in, but could be almost anything here. Watch the board and try to beat the very nice favorite with a few price horses.

11^th Turf Classic Grade 1

Sorry to be boring here but I like Bricks and Mortar for Chad Brown as the obvious favorite.

12th The Kentucky Derby Grade 1

This is an exceptionally interesting and competitive race, more wide open than most Derbies. Could make a case for many in here, but I’ll mention 3 horses on top after the late scratch of morning line favorite Omaha Beach, who was scratched Wednesday evening. He has a manageable problem and should race again, but it shows yet again just how challenging and unpredictable this game can be. He was my top selection; Jockey Mike Smith choose to ride him over his regular mount Roadster for trainer Bob Baffert, despite Roadster’s impressive win in the Santa Anita Derby. Omaha Beach had it all; top rider, racing experience, a strong turn of foot, the right running style for this, and a terrific trainer in Richard Mandella. He was the horse to beat, but will have to wait for later races to prove he’s the top three year old in North America now.

The next three selections are;

1. Tacitus comes in with top connections. Appears to have been trained to peak for this race and looked impressive winning the Wood Memorial in his 4^th career start (albeit against a weaker field than some other Derby preps). Great rider in Jose Ortiz, bred to love the distance top and bottom. Only issue is many of Tapit’s runners can be a handful, so watch the paddock and post parade for signs. If he handles the Derby atmosphere has a real shot here. Will be a lot less than his 10 to 1 morning line odds with the scratch of Omaha Beach but still may be a decent value.

3. Vekoma has a similar profile to Tacitus. Also won his last impressively in his 4^th career start and at long odds well worth a wager

4. War of Will draws the rail, not ideal but he’s likely to head right for the lead from there and set a lively pace. He’s by War Front out of a Sadler’s Wells mare, so bred to get the distance. Toss out a debacle in his last, the Louisiana Derby, and he’d be one of the favorites here. Been working really well since that race, could be a huge price and worth a shot. IF the pace is not too fast, it’s not impossible to win on or near the lead and this just might be the horse to do it.

Possible Contenders (in no particular order);

Have to give a shout out to undefeated Jason Servis trained Maximum Security. Never faced anything like these horses, got an easy trip on the lead last time in the Florida Derby, unlikely to happen again but too good to ignore at the right price.

Two-year-old champion Game Winner and Roadster are trained by Bob Baffert and in many years either would be solidly favored. My gut says both get beat, but can’t fault the connections or their records.