2018 Kentucky Derby day selections and analysis

As usual, this year’s Derby promises to be a fascinating handicapping exercise. While it’s the best known race in the country if not the world, it’s by no means the race with the best horses. It’s a race for young horses just developing, where the pace and trip in a huge field mean more in many cases than who has the most talent (last year Always Dreaming, a vastly inferior horse who hasn’t won a single race since, got a dream drip and won, the perfect example of that). This year’s edition is one of the strongest in recent memory, with two unbeaten, very talented lightly raced runners and many logical contenders.

First, some selections for a few other key races from Churchill on Derby day, and for opening day at Monmouth Park (finally we open on Derby Day instead of a week later!!)…

Opening day at Monmouth Park;

1^st race of the meet – race #1

Ark in the Dark - Kenwood has a new trainer and he has a horse the first race of the meet who we think is primed for a win

3^rd race; We like Majestic Voyage, Tampa horses run really well at Monmouth

5^th race; Ninety One Assault the horse to beat at a short price

8^th race;  A shout out to old friend Pink Cashmere’s younger brother Golden Brown

9^th race; The Cliff Hanger; We like Slim Shadey, plus two European imports, Serjeant At Arms and Celebration

Saturday May 5^th – Kentucky Derby Day

Pre-Derby races;

6^th – Grade I Distaff

Finley’slickycharm is 6 for 6 at Churchill, ‘enough said. If you get anywhere near her morning line 7 to 2 odds it’s a steal. Lewis Bay missed by a head to the top one at Keeneland last time out and goes for top connections, strictly the horse to beat. Good exacta option too.

7^th – Grade II Distaff Turf Mile – Grade II

Hard to go past Dream Awhile for Chad Brown off her last at Gulfstream Park, top rider and the pedigree to be a good one too. , even with a moderate layoff. Res Ipsa  loves Churchill and is in great form now. On Leave a price play, La Coronel tough to beat if she can overcome the far outside post but might be overbet.

8^th – Churchill Downs Stakes – Grade II

I like Whitmore and Limousine Liberal to make huge late moves in this incredibly competitive 7f race at solid prices. The two likely favorites, Imperial Hint and Awesome Slew are really nice horses but the value might lie elsewhere. All four could make a good exotics box. 

9^th – American Turf Grade II

Tough, tough wide open race but I’ll go with the unbeaten Rushing Fall if he goes off at something close to his 5 to 1 odds. Not one to over bet, about 8 horses could easily win this.

10^th Pat Day Mile Grede III

I like three horses here; National Flag, Mask and Madison’s Laura. I might favor Madison’s Laura, especially at a higher potential price, but any of them could win.

11^th Turf Classic Grade 1

Sorry to be boring here but I like the two favorites, Deauville on the rail and Beach Patrol on the outside.

12th The Kentucky Derby Grade 1

This is an exceptional race, more competitive perhaps than any year in recent memory. Let’s begin by taking a stand against all four of trainer Todd Pletcher’s horses; Audible and Magnum Moon are likely to get a lot of betting and while both are in great form and very capable of winning, they fit the pattern of the many Pletcher horses that have gone down in flames in this race previously. (Then again, Audible has the same pattern and form as Always Dreaming, who I bet against last year and got a perfect trip and won for Pletcher, the trip is everything in this race). Betting this race is about taking a stand against likely over bet horses and I’ll pass on both, as well as on Vino Rosso and Noble Indy for the same barn. In the same vein, I’ll also skip Bolt d’Oro, a very nice colt who I think is just a cut below one or two in here and figures to take a fair amount of wagering.

I’ll go with 3 possible horses on top;

Good Magic Last year’s two year old champion has really done nothing wrong in any of his starts and comes with top connections. Appears to have been perfectly trained to peak for this race. In another year might go off a solid favorite but with two unbeaten horses in the race, he might fly a bit under the radar screen.

Mendelssohn is a world traveler, has won everywhere, including a super-impressive effort in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf last year at Del Mar. He cost $3,000,000 as a yearling and may be one of the rare high-priced babies to be worth it. He’s by the amazing and greatly lamented late Scat Daddy, who has four runners in this year’s Derby. Kenwood’s own Lisa Limon is by Scat Daddy so we’ll be happy to see him (or any of the other three) in the winner’s circle.  Has the connections and experience and ability to win it all.

Justify (another by Scat Daddy) is unbeaten in just three lifetime starts and has been nothing short of incredible in all of them. Bob Baffert trains, and he reminds you of American Pharoah in terms of talent and potential. Can he win a race like this off just three starts? As the likely favorite, he’s probably a horse to bet against but he’s just too good not to include in exotics and mention as the horse to fear here.

Possible Longshot Contenders (in no particular order);

Hofburg – Is trained by Bill Mott and is royally bred for it (by Tapit). Mott rarely runs lightly raced horses in big races unless he thinks they are special and ready for it.

My Boy Jack Is an experienced deep closer, could pick up a piece if a huge speed dual develops

Enticed – Has the pedigree and connections to surprise and hit the board at a huge price.