An interesting comment in an article by Andy Beyer in the December 19^th issue of the Daily Racing Form

about year-end Eclipse awards says a lot about what matters most when evaluating the overall records of trainers. Speaking about the award for leading trainer, Beyer writes:

“Many Eclipse Award voters look at the lists of top money-winning trainers and jockeys and vote for whoever is No. 1 as their default selection. In the case of trainers, this is often tantamount to an award to whoever has the biggest, strongest stable. That means Todd Pletcher, who has won six Eclipse Awards in the last decade.

Pletcher’s purse winnings are far ahead of his rivals’ in 2014, but this was not a great year for him – and he’d probably acknowledge that fact. With his army of promising 3-year-olds, he nominated 41 horses to the Kentucky Derby (one-tenth of the entire nomination list), but he had a terrible attrition rate through the year. He didn’t have a leading contender in the Derby – his entrants finished third, 10th, 12th, and 17th – and not a single one of his 3-year-olds made it to any of the Breeders’ Cup races. His only five starters in the Cup were 2-year-olds – all losers."

There’s a valuable lesson here in terms of statistics when evaluating trainers (and for that matter jockeys, owners and racing syndicates as well). Of course winning matters, but the quality of horses in a trainer’s barn goes a long way to determining their overall record. Give a weak trainer a barn full of top horses and they are going to win a lot of races. Give the most talented trainer in the world a barn full of cheap, inconsistent claiming horses and they are going to struggle to maintain even an average winning percentage. Todd Pletcher’s barn is filled with million dollar babies every year, the cream of the crop. While the highest priced horses are not always the best runners (and are virtually never worth paying the premium they command at the sales), they do provide a significant advantage.

As Beyer notes, when you have 41 horses nominated to the Kentucky Derby, and the four who make it to the race run 3^rd, 10^th, 12^th and 17^th, and not a single one makes it to any of the Breeders’ Cup races, it’s not exactly a ringing endorsement. No doubt Todd Pletcher is a fine trainer and one of the good guys in the business, but there are a lot of other very good trainers laboring with a small stable of modest-priced horses who would put up equally good overall numbers if given similar stock. Makes you wonder why owners pay outrageous day rates to a few ‘name’ trainers in New York and southern California when there are many equally talented trainers available who can offer them (and their horses) more individual attention at half the cost. Beyer suggests in his article that this year’s Eclipse award for top trainer should go to Art Sherman, trainer of California Chrome, a perfect example of a relatively unknown trainer outside his home base of Northern California, who has done more with less. A more worthy winner would be hard to find.

Looking beyond the obvious statistics is particularly important when selecting a trainer to manage your horses. What percentage of a trainer’s barn is comprised of maidens and lower priced claiming horses vs. allowance and stakes runners?  Do horses improve when they come into a trainer’s barn, and what do they do when they leave it? Any one horse can make a trainer look good or bad, but if the horses leaving your trainer’s barn via claim, purchase, etc. are consistently performing worse for their new connections, your trainer is probably doing very well with the quality of racing stock given to them.

The same can be said of racing syndicates. If you are looking to invest your money with someone managing a stable of horses, look beyond one or two highly publicized success stories and ask how much they are spending per horse to achieve their overall results. How many of their yearling and two year old purchases make it to the races, break their maidens, and earn back their purchase prices, let alone ultimately make money for the partners? If you are going to invest your hard earned money with someone, you owe it to yourself to look beyond the easy statistics and ask the hard questions.

H. Robb Levinsky is the founder  & co-managing partner of Kenwood Racing.