Friday, January 29, 2021 By Robb Levinsky

When evaluating horses for claiming, you generally begin by looking for a horse that can run back for you in a matter of weeks with a shot to get to the winner’s circle. That’s the value of claiming vs. purchasing a unraced yearling or two year old; a quicker - lower cost way to buy a horse that can win and make money. While many people like the idea of buying young(er) horses, it’s frequently veteran runners with proven records that make the most successful claims because once a horse has shown an ability to consistently run, remain sound and win, it’s more likely to keep doing that for you. Of course, there can be more ‘upside’ with a younger horse, but more of them are likely to not stand up to racing and/or have the talent to win at the level you purchased it at once it goes through ‘conditions’. Understanding conditions and the condition book is a lengthy subject, but suffice it to say, a horse who has only made a few starts and won one or two races has risks of it’s own that many people do not fully comprehend.

Another key part of claiming is knowing which races go most frequently and where you will be able to run the horse next time if you claim it. If you claim a horse that only runs 5 furlongs on the grass for example, opportunities to race are probably going to be limited. Remember it costs about $4,000 a month (more at Gulfstream usually) to keep a horse in training so this stuff, while few owners pay attention to it, really matters. Bottom line, when savvy people claim horses they are looking for runners who are likely to be sound and talented enough to win races and make money and are eligible for races that are likely to go where they are likely to be competitive. That can be a colt, a filly, a 2 year old, or an 8 year old, a turf horse or a dirt horse. While many owners are imagining a horse they will own for years, many horses are owned for a few races and are at some point claimed away. If you want the best shot to get into the winner’s circle and actually have a chance to make money, claiming is a very good way to play the game, but you need to be realistic. There absolutely are claims that move up the ladder, win allowance and even stake races and become one of the rare horses everyone wants that competes at a high level for years, but you need to run your hands through a lot of horses to find them.  With unraced two year olds or yearlings, you probably have a (modestly) better shot of coming up with a really good horse, but you are almost certainly going to spend a lot more time and money getting to the winner’s circle and come up with a lot more horses that can’t run, don’t win, and are money pits. There’s advantages and disadvantages to every purchase option be it claiming, buying unraced horses at auction, private purchases, and breeding. None are inherently better or worse, it’s a matter of your goals and willingness to accept risk.

Probably the most important thing to know about purchasing racehorses in general and claiming in particular is that it’s a numbers game. Out of a crop of about 20,000 horses each year approximately 40% of all horses never make it the winner’s circle at all (many never even start) and approximately 40% win one or two races at lower claiming levels. About 3% of all horses win a stake, a fraction of 1% win a graded stake, about 10% win an allowance race at some point in their career (most of those eventually end up in the claiming ranks). While really capable buyers can improve upon those numbers (over 95% of horses purchased by Kenwood have started and over 90% have won), the majority of horses purchased by anyone do not end up to be successful runners. That’s just the nature of competitive athletics, with horses and with people. Hundreds of thousands of young men dream of playing in the NBA or NFL but only a tiny handful actually get there and even among those who do, most have very short careers and never achieve stardom. It’s for this reason we stress that to have a realistic chance of success in this very challenging game, you simply cannot buy into one or two horses and expect to end up with the kind of horse most of us are looking for. Of course, never do anything beyond your entertainment budget, but if you want a shot at a nice horse you almost always need to ‘run your hands’ through a group of horses to get it. That’s true with claims, unraced yearlings or two year olds, and private purchases. Each horse-group in our Taste of Thoroughbred Ownership® program is priced very affordably to give people the opportunity to own multiple horses instead of ‘cherry picking’, which most people sadly do and rarely works out well.

Decades ago, when I was just starting out in the business at Suffolk Downs in Boston, I spoke with a very successful young trainer named Bill Perry. He had rapidly risen to be the leading trainer in New England and begun to achieve national recognition by coming up with a number of high level stakes winners. When I congratulated him on his success and asked him to train for me he replied “everyone sees the good horses but nobody know how many bad horses that never made that cost a ton of time and money it took to come up with those”. At the time I didn’t fully comprehend what he was saying, but over the years it became abundantly clear. Look at the most successful owners with a dozen stakes winners and you’ll find someone who spent millions on horses that never ran, never won, or ended up to be lower level claiming horses. That’s why it’s essential not to overpay for horses, you need to purchase at a level where winning purses can pay back at least a good part of the purchase price and claiming is not the only but one of the best ways to do that. The bottom line in this wonderful but challenging business is to be realistic about what you can expect, maintain a long-term perspective, let the numbers work for you, and try not to let industry hype and mis-information cloud your judgement. It’s a tough game but that’s the best path to follow for everyone.

Robb Levinsky

 

 

 

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